@alfarzan this is interesting ; in another thread ( “Asymmetric” loss function? ) we discussed how the optimal margin strategy of a player depends on the quality of his own estimate ; as @Calico suggested, more unknown in the estimate probably lead to higher optimal margins.
Here you get an opposite approach and conclude that the margin should not depend of the variation of your own estimate but on the variation of your competitors estimate…
And in both case, more uncertainty leads to optimal strategies with higher margin.
This topic definitely deserves more serious investigation !