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Phase 2 of the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is live 🚀
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3
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263
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October 1, 2026
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Everything we tried: a factorized K=3 cumulant-propagation estimator at 0.25 x B, where its FLOPs go, and 25 measured dead ends (team 504aldo, rank ~10)
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4
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256
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September 22, 2026
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[Phase 1 write-up] Fixed grid of directions instead of random sampling (submission #320802) and five things that did not work
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1
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353
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September 22, 2026
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[Phase 2] The compute budget is not a lever, and the scoring rule is why: `adjusted = mse x max(0.1, util)`
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0
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90
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September 17, 2026
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Errors are leaking information
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1
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116
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September 9, 2026
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[Phase 2 write-up] Zero fitted constants, measured: what the 64 calibration numbers in a ReLU-MLP mean propagator are actually absorbing (submission #330001)
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0
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100
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September 6, 2026
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Phase 2 write-up: exact bivariate ReLU covariance plus per-layer calibration, 3x over the kit baseline, with negative results (submission 329951)
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0
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84
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September 5, 2026
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Interesting talks by the organizers
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2
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177
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September 4, 2026
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Covariance propagation baseline scores 3.93e-7/3.93e-6
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2
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107
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September 4, 2026
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Request to Claude and GPT
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2
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176
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August 31, 2026
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Shipped covariance_propagation example trips the Phase 2 residual cap locally (0.16.0) but grades fine - what happens when the evaluator upgrades?
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4
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141
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August 29, 2026
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[Phase 1 write-up] Variance reduction beats closure refinement: a moment-matched sampling estimator (submission #324497)
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0
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75
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August 26, 2026
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[Phase 2 write-up] Complementary errors beat either branch: a fixed 0.75/0.25 covariance + whitened antithetic MC blend (submission 328274)
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0
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121
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August 26, 2026
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"Unusually easy leaderboard set" effect is gone
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1
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114
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August 24, 2026
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Phase 2 — Official Start Date and Details?
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2
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103
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August 23, 2026
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Phase 1 SOLUTION, ideas for Phase 2 and the honest public frontier (all methods combined and explained)
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4
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217
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August 23, 2026
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Queries regarding phase 2
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1
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116
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August 20, 2026
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How did you use AI?
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2
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118
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August 20, 2026
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[Phase 1 research atlas] How I reached public #16 — and why the next 56 experiments failed
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3
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220
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August 20, 2026
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Phase 1 Report, Submission 327801
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5
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142
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August 20, 2026
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Notes on the Problem (Phase 1)
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2
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124
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August 19, 2026
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A technique census of Phase 1: what the mathematics is doing, what walls it hit, and what's still open
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13
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475
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August 19, 2026
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Phase 1 Substack Post
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0
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77
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August 18, 2026
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Phase 2 Starting?
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1
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114
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August 18, 2026
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Our current approach: Korobov hybrid trunk (E) + offline ridge residual corrector (G) — ~16% graded gain, what we learned
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0
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61
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August 18, 2026
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Measured: the metered-FLOP vs residual-wall-time trade-off, and what it implies for a Phase 2 cap
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0
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55
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August 18, 2026
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Bitter-lesson-pilled sampling-free propagator yielding 1.5e-5 raw MSE
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3
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171
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August 17, 2026
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[Write-up, submission 326725] Measuring the ceiling of a method class: how we closed 54 families of estimators without building them
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0
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106
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August 17, 2026
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Phase 1 Algorithmic Contribution Write-up — Submission #327792
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0
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78
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August 17, 2026
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Phase 1 Write-Ups, Team Puffi
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3
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183
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August 17, 2026
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