|
Phase 2 of the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is live 🚀
|
|
2
|
235
|
September 26, 2026
|
|
Everything we tried: a factorized K=3 cumulant-propagation estimator at 0.25 x B, where its FLOPs go, and 25 measured dead ends (team 504aldo, rank ~10)
|
|
4
|
232
|
September 22, 2026
|
|
[Phase 1 write-up] Fixed grid of directions instead of random sampling (submission #320802) and five things that did not work
|
|
1
|
348
|
September 22, 2026
|
|
[Phase 2] The compute budget is not a lever, and the scoring rule is why: `adjusted = mse x max(0.1, util)`
|
|
0
|
75
|
September 17, 2026
|
|
Errors are leaking information
|
|
1
|
102
|
September 9, 2026
|
|
[Phase 2 write-up] Zero fitted constants, measured: what the 64 calibration numbers in a ReLU-MLP mean propagator are actually absorbing (submission #330001)
|
|
0
|
91
|
September 6, 2026
|
|
Phase 2 write-up: exact bivariate ReLU covariance plus per-layer calibration, 3x over the kit baseline, with negative results (submission 329951)
|
|
0
|
77
|
September 5, 2026
|
|
Interesting talks by the organizers
|
|
2
|
168
|
September 4, 2026
|
|
Covariance propagation baseline scores 3.93e-7/3.93e-6
|
|
2
|
104
|
September 4, 2026
|
|
Request to Claude and GPT
|
|
2
|
169
|
August 31, 2026
|
|
Shipped covariance_propagation example trips the Phase 2 residual cap locally (0.16.0) but grades fine - what happens when the evaluator upgrades?
|
|
4
|
137
|
August 29, 2026
|
|
[Phase 1 write-up] Variance reduction beats closure refinement: a moment-matched sampling estimator (submission #324497)
|
|
0
|
70
|
August 26, 2026
|
|
[Phase 2 write-up] Complementary errors beat either branch: a fixed 0.75/0.25 covariance + whitened antithetic MC blend (submission 328274)
|
|
0
|
117
|
August 26, 2026
|
|
"Unusually easy leaderboard set" effect is gone
|
|
1
|
114
|
August 24, 2026
|
|
Phase 2 — Official Start Date and Details?
|
|
2
|
101
|
August 23, 2026
|
|
Phase 1 SOLUTION, ideas for Phase 2 and the honest public frontier (all methods combined and explained)
|
|
4
|
213
|
August 23, 2026
|
|
Queries regarding phase 2
|
|
1
|
116
|
August 20, 2026
|
|
How did you use AI?
|
|
2
|
114
|
August 20, 2026
|
|
[Phase 1 research atlas] How I reached public #16 — and why the next 56 experiments failed
|
|
3
|
219
|
August 20, 2026
|
|
Phase 1 Report, Submission 327801
|
|
5
|
138
|
August 20, 2026
|
|
Notes on the Problem (Phase 1)
|
|
2
|
121
|
August 19, 2026
|
|
A technique census of Phase 1: what the mathematics is doing, what walls it hit, and what's still open
|
|
13
|
469
|
August 19, 2026
|
|
Phase 1 Substack Post
|
|
0
|
75
|
August 18, 2026
|
|
Phase 2 Starting?
|
|
1
|
112
|
August 18, 2026
|
|
Our current approach: Korobov hybrid trunk (E) + offline ridge residual corrector (G) — ~16% graded gain, what we learned
|
|
0
|
59
|
August 18, 2026
|
|
Measured: the metered-FLOP vs residual-wall-time trade-off, and what it implies for a Phase 2 cap
|
|
0
|
54
|
August 18, 2026
|
|
Bitter-lesson-pilled sampling-free propagator yielding 1.5e-5 raw MSE
|
|
3
|
167
|
August 17, 2026
|
|
[Write-up, submission 326725] Measuring the ceiling of a method class: how we closed 54 families of estimators without building them
|
|
0
|
103
|
August 17, 2026
|
|
Phase 1 Algorithmic Contribution Write-up — Submission #327792
|
|
0
|
76
|
August 17, 2026
|
|
Phase 1 Write-Ups, Team Puffi
|
|
3
|
177
|
August 17, 2026
|