Motivation from the submission history

I’ve been playing with the submission history. It’s interesting to me that most participants tend to hit a wall around 0.61, with only a few submissions getting beyond that and close to the top. I’d expect a more gentle falloff towards the top if we were all just making minute tweaks to a decent model/ensemble with similar features. The sharp spike makes me think maybe there is some extra innovation or edge beyond just some basic optimizations that only a few people have figured out.

It’s maybe a bit of motivation for the final week. Can you see the breakthrough that will not just take 0.608 down to 0.607 but will leap to 0.5X? Or are we just seeing overfitting on the small test set as discussed in eg :slight_smile:


Ha, this inspired two crazy ideas. Neither worked, but at least it motivated me to try something! Hope it does the same for you :slight_smile:


Unique graph. Thanks for sharing.
Sharp spike? I have difficulties seeing it, lol.
Exciting finals to come!

Perhaps , the only way to break the
Resistance is to use a special
Outlawed approach…
But can it really be called…
Not so sure about that…
Good luck to all !

any acrostic fans ? :sweat_smile:


Hehe, my brain was convinced there was a separate top tier from the scatterplot but you are totally right ‘sharp spike’ was not a substantiated claim. Plotting density, it does look like a nice smooth falloff. Anyways, good luck :slight_smile:


Hi @Johnowhitaker,

Thank you for the graph. Did you use 3-digits submissions logloss? My feeling is that the shape will be quite different with no rounded results.

And it made me think: what would happen if more than 10 participants reach the top? (as there are 10 prizes).

Fictive example:

  • 1 — 0.590
  • 2 — 0.594
  • 3 — 0.598
  • 4 to 8 — 0.600
  • 9 to 12 — 0.601

From today’s townhall, this is my motivation for the finals.

Printing as many bingo cards as possible! :smiley:





:desktop_computer: :computer_mouse:
One last time!