Well I think this may now be a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent if people look to your analysis as a guide and everyone just goes with 35%, we shall see 
I’m not feeling as generous as you, so I’m not sharing the details for now, but I’ve been exploring something somewhat similar and get a much lower range (not necessarily correctly).
I’ll throw this in - how bad is your worst model? … is it fair to expect this to make a profit?